Newcomers try to get 'Real' at B.O.

'Footloose''The Thing''The Big Year'Paramount's "Footloose" remake may not be able to dance away with the weekend's domestic B.O. crown despite positive word of mouth from advanced screenings. Holdover "Real Steel" and sci-fi horror prequel "The Thing" will also vie for the top spot. "Footloose," which launches today at 3,549 Stateside locations, is likely to bow at around $15 million, according to pre-weekend tracking services. That doesn't leave much wiggle room for the dance pic, since DreamWorks' "Real Steel" is likely to drop some 45%-50% in its second outing, which would put it with- in hailing distance of "Footloose.""Footloose." Universal's "The Thing" prequel is in the mix as well, though the studio has slightly more modest expectations for an opening in the low double-digits. Twentieth Century Fox's adult-skewed bird-watching comedy "The Big Year" will struggle to take flight, B.O. observers say, with dismal prospects in the $3 million-$5 million range. Overseas, "Real Steel" should hold on to its No. 1 position, expanding to markets like South Korea and the U.K. Last weekend, the film bowed with $22.6 million, more than enough to knock "The Smurfs" from its eight-week roost atop the international box office. Domestically, the weekend will take a sizable hit vs. last year, when "Jackass 3D" scored the highest opening ever in October with $50 million. That's considered a B.O. anomaly, so most bizzers are focusing on last weekend as a better comparison. In an effort to build word of mouth (and boosted by enthusiastic test screenings), Par hosted free nationwide sneaks of "Footloose" on Sept. 30, as well as screenings for cheerleading camps and youth groups. Par said the advanced screenings were effective in reinforcing interest among the pic's core demos, mainly teenage girls and women between 30 and 40. But there hasn't been much movement among male auds, meaning "Footloose" still is primarily a dual-quadrant pic. The original "Footloose" became a B.O. sensation in 1984, cuming almost $80 million -- nearly 10 times its opening-weekend gross. Par's remake cost a modest $24 million, with OK overseas prospects to keep the mood light. The film bowed day-and-date with $1.2 million from Australia and New Zealand. Pic expands this weekend to an additional five markets, including the U.K., with major territories such as France, Brazil and Russia set to follow over the next few months. Universal is distribbing "The Thing" overseas for Morgan Creek, which had international rights to the film. "The Thing" -- a prequel to John Carpenter's original 1982 film -- launches this weekend in Oz, France and Taiwan. Domestically, there's a lot riding on the film's opening perf, especially since Par launches "Paranormal Activity 3" next weekend. It's not certain whether auds will embrace both pics in the weeks leading up to Halloween. The holiday itself typically isn't a big moviegoing weekend, though Halloween this year falls on a Monday. For comparison purposes, Universal points to Screen Gems' "The Stepfather," which bowed this same weekend in 2009 with $11.6 million and cumed only $29.1 million domestically. Fox's "The Big Year," budgeted at a reported $28 million, could be a tough sell for the studio: The film follows three avid bird-watchers who compete to spot the rarest birds in North America. Stars Owen Wilson, Jack Black and Steve Martin will attract some filmgoers, though the primarily adult aud could be deterred by tepid reviews. In limited release, Sony Pictures Classics bows Pedro Almodovar's "The Skin I Live In" at six locations in NY and L.A. Also this weekend, Millennium Films' Nicole Kidman-Nicolas Cage thriller "Trespass" launches at 10 Stateside engagements, while Anchor Bay's "Texas Killing Fields," starring Sam Worthington and Jessica Chastain, opens at three. Contact Andrew Stewart at andrew.stewart@variety.com